Timely trends and tactical advice for outfitters, using data from May 1 – July 6, 2025.
Using our Central Data Hub, we’ve compiled early season reservation data from across the industry into a comprehensive mid-season report. Below is a summary of where things stand, and how we recommend outfitters respond as we barrel into the second half of the season.
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A “Same-Same But Different” Kind of Summer
If you look at our pre-season 2025 Summer Scout Report, you’ll see our prediction that 2025 will track comparably to 2023 (noting that 2024 appeared to be our industry’s final post-pandemic year of dropping numbers).
Well, weather caused general booking sales to cool off, resulting in a slow-ish season start and a promising second half.
This is also evident in our early-season collaborative deep-dive piece with The Flybook from Spring 2025 – Navigating the Current: Outdoor Industry Trends & Insights (Jan-May 2025).
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Key things of note from our May 1 – July 6, 2025 “Start Date” data above:
- Activity passenger volume is down 8% overall from 2024
- Lodging nights volume is up 6% overall from 2024
- Retail sales has climbed significantly in 2025
- Total revenue – across activities, lodging, photo, and retail – is “flat” at only 2% down from 2024
To be clear: the demand isn’t gone, it’s just redistributed. The visual above represents when customers start their trip. A lot of this spring’s advanced bookings (what we call “purchase date” sales) are for group trips starting mid- and late summer. For the general day-to-day consumer, advanced bookings aren’t nearly as advanced as outfitters are used to, which makes things feel like they’re lagging.
What Slowed the Start?
Two key drivers:
- Unseasonably cold and wet weather in May muted early general bookings across much of the country.
- Memorial Day landed early, before many people were mentally or logistically ready to kick off summer. We heard multiple tales of guests mistakenly booking activities or campgrounds for the last Saturday in May (the 31st), assuming it was the holiday weekend, and then scrambling or canceling when they learned the holiday was a week earlier. Whoops!
Wet weather and a wonky holiday weekend means June got off to a slow start. But as temperatures rose, bookings rebounded and June concluded with numbers between 2024 and 2023 levels!
In other words, it’s a little early still to claim June “saved the season,” but it sure did stabilize it.
The Disappearing “Pre-Booker”
Here’s something we find ourselves repeating to almost all our clients this year: Post-COVID urgency has slowly disappeared. Have you noticed it?
Non-group consumers no longer feel pressure to plan months ahead. Now, families and friends are asking: “What do we feel like doing this weekend?”
This return to in-destination, last-minute decision-making is affecting every facet of the industry (remember the pre-Covid days when relatively last-minute bookings were the norm?). Booking windows have shrunk noticeably. Some trips are filling only days or even hours in advance, meaning operators need to stay nimble, responsive, and even a little scrappy and creative to accommodate.
Looking To The Future
We certainly don’t have an all-knowing crystal ball here at Zebulon. But, we DO value looking to the future so we can make educated predictions and adjust present-day actions to meet future needs.
Here’s what we’re seeing for the July 7-September 2, 2025 time period. (Just like the calendar timing for Memorial Day Weekend in May was a little wonky this year, so is Labor Day Weekend – it’s early this year, falling on the last weekend in August (with the national holiday on Monday, September 1st).
Click on the image above to enlarge.
Key things of note from our forward-looking July 7 – September 2, 2025 data above:
- Activity sales are at 46% of 2024’s final dollars, but lodging is already clocking in at 80%.
- Passengers booked are already one-third the volume of 2024 – not bad so far.
- Average spend for lodging & activities are both considerably higher in 2025, driven by mid- to high-priced items sold.
The story we’re seeing is this: Strong lodging numbers show people are already planning on getting outside this summer, they just haven’t bought or scheduled their vacation activities yet. Being strategic about activity sales, combined with this year’s higher average spend, means midsummer through Labor Day Weekend still has tons of potential to perform strongly, weather permitting.
What This Data Means for Outfitters
We can’t control the weather, the economy, or the national mood. But we can control how we respond to things!
As the saying goes, “Possession is nine-tenths of the law,” so this article is helping you possess the data and the tools to act accordingly. Let’s git ‘er done!
1. Get More Bang For Your Buck!
Our biggest suggestion for the second half of the season is to maximize the consumer spend you can capture. Guests are still showing up, and when they do, your new goal should be to convert every available dollar. If your booking volume is down, your in-house sales will need to be stronger than ever to reach your targets.
So, our advice to you is: Get creative. Bundle with photo packages. Encourage patrons to buy branded merch. Incentivize your staff to upsell. Cross-pollinate between departments. When rafters come in off the water, give ‘em a verbal password that unlocks dollars off their first drink at the bar. Give barflies a mid-week raft discount and ask they talk up your business to others (but only if they postpone their pints until after they’re off the water!). Sweating this “small stuff” isn’t fluff – in fact, we believe it’s what really keeps margins alive.
2. Market Like You Mean It
Here’s a timely reminder: other outfitters aren’t your only competition! During summertime especially, remember that you’re competing with breweries, mini golf, live music, farmers markets, and even lazy (and likely air-conditioned) days spent binge-watching on the couch. We’ve all heard the adage: If you’re outta sight, you’re outta mind.
Now is not the time to ease off the “promo” gas. If anything, the second half of the summer season is the window to lean even more into your marketing strategy. Increase ad spend, especially on short-term availability. Run timely promotions (not discounts). Open up booking options closer to trip times. It’s time to buckle down and get butts in boats and heads in beds by any means necessary – and we know you can do it!
3. Spend Like It’s the Off-Season
We’ll say it again in case you didn’t hear us the first time: Spend like it’s the off-season.
Everyone’s familiar with a little belt-tightening that happens during low season. Well, it’s time to adopt that “lean finances” mentality a few months earlier than usual. In other words: cut waste, sell existing inventory, and do so aggressively.
Some of you are still spending as if 2021’s “30-year historic high” demand patterns will return. Well, they won’t – at least probably not for another 30 years. Thus, Summer 2025 requires the same financial discipline you’d apply in January.
Just take it from Zeb: “Saving on spend today, will save your shirts this winter.”
You don’t need to hoard pennies, but you DO need to manage cash flow like your future depends on it. …Because it does!
The Mentor Mindset For This Season and Beyond
We want to take the opportunity to be a friendly voice of reason here. The book “10 to 25: The Science of Motivating Young People” talks about adopting a “Mentor Mindset,” which is the sweet spot between maintaining high expectations and providing high support.
So, this is Zebulon’s “Mentor Mindset” moment for the 2025 season: With all due respect, we encourage outfitters to stop expecting each season will look like the last. We also encourage you to stop waiting for bookings to return to “normal!” Like our dear friend and client Tom Moore of Sierra South Mountain Sports says, “I’ve got 40 years under my belt and I haven’t experienced a “normal” water season yet!”
Ok, now that we’ve gotten our motivational speaking out of the way: There’s still time to close strong – and we’re confident in outfitters’ abilities to shift tactics to squeeze everything possible out of existing customers and adapt to their shortened booking windows.
Turnkey Takeaways for the Second Half of the ‘25 Season:
If the above article is too wordy for your tastes, you’ve come to the right place. Here are the biggest takeaways we want every outfitter to know.
To grow and thrive through the rest of the 2025 season, outfitters should:
- Anticipate and adapt to shorter booking windows
- Get creative and lean hard into generating more on-site sales
- Spend like it’s the off-season
- Be more aggressive (and maybe a little experimental) with marketing spend
The data is clear, and so are our predictions: Outfitters who stay focused and flexible, and those who are willing to get a little scrappy and a little thrifty, will come out ahead!
We’re here to help. Let’s get those butts in boats, and let’s get ‘em buying more snacks and merch while they’re at it!
Did this 2025 Mid-Season Report miss any trends you’re noticing? Drop us a line here. Want exclusive access to our in-depth data and Zebulon’s real-time insights? Want to work on your business from the inside out, in a non-competitive environment made up of other outfit owners and leaders? Contact us today about getting on retainer with Zebulon and joining The Eddy.
